TROPICAL UPDATE: Ian and Lisa not Threats; Tropical Wave Over Eastern Atlantic Could Develop Early Next Week

Tropical Storm Ian strengthened into a strong tropical storm yesterday, Lisa weakened to a tropical depression, and the tropical wave over the far Eastern Atlantic we have been discussing could develop early next week.

Tropical Storm Ian

as of the 5:00AM EDT advisory Tropical Storm Ian was located East of Bermuda, at 32.2 degrees north and 63.7 degrees west. Movement was to the northeast at 18 miles per-hour, maximum sustained winds were 65 miles per-hour, and the minimum central pressure was 993 millibars.

Due to Ian’s proximity to Bermuda,  a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are in effect for the island.

Karl should continue to move off to the Northeast, away from Bermuda, becoming a hurricane today tomorrow, before eventually becoming post-tropical late tomorrow or Monday.

Ian does not pose a threat to the United States.

Tropical Depression Lisa

As of the 5:00AM EDT advisory Tropical Depression Lisa was located over the far Eastern at 23.8 degrees north and 37.9 degrees west. Movement was to the northwest at 9 miles per-hour, maximum sustained winds were 35mph, and the minimum central pressure was 1010 millibars.

Lisa is expected to become a remnant low later today.

Tropical Wave

The tropical wave located over the far Eastern Atlantic that we have been discussing for the past several days appears to have a decent chance of developing early next when it gets to about 50 or 55 degrees west (just East of the Caribbean Sea).

At this time, it looks like environmental conditions will be favorable for development; and most of the major global model guidance (the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, CMC, and GEFS) develops this wave just East of the Caribbean Sea between Monday and Wednesday of next week.

When (if) the wave develops, the model consensus is for it to track west into the Eastern and then Central Caribbean by late next week.

In their 8:00am EDT tropical weather outlook the National Hurricane Center gave the tropical wave a 10% chance of developing over the next 2 days and a 50% chance of developing over the next 5 days.

NOTE: It is to early too speculate on potential track and intensity, as development is not a sure thing. Also, keep in mind that this is nothing to be concerned about yet as there is still plenty of uncertainty regarding the evolution of this wave. However, it is something to keep an eye on through this upcoming week.

We will have another update out on the tropics tomorrow.