We will begin this update by discussing invest 99-L
Invest 99-L
As of 8:00pm EDT Invest 99-L was located over the Western Tropical Atlantic at 16.6 degrees north and 53.5 degrees west. Maximum sustained winds were 30mph, the minimum central pressure was 1011 millibars, and movement was to the west.
Forecast for 99-L
Invest 99-L is forecast to track west to west-northwest through the Eastern Caribbean on Wednesday and Thursday. Development of 99-L is not expected during that time due dry air.
However, invest 99-L will move into the Bahamas late Thursday or early Friday where environmental conditions could be more favorable for development, potentially allowing 99-L to spin up into a tropical depression or storm as early as this upcoming weekend.
As we stated in our update this afternoon, the latest runs of the ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC all develop 99-L in the Bahamas this weekend. In addition, some of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members, HWRF, and GFDL are also forecasting development of 99-L in the Bahamas this weekend.
However, development is still not a guarantee; and plenty of uncertainties remain regarding the evolution of invest 99-L over the next several days.
In their 8:00pm EDT tropical weather outlook the National Hurricane Center have invest 99-L a 60% chance of developing over the next 5 days.
Looking out beyond five days, it does look like invest 99-L could pose a threat to the United States in 7 to 8 days – particularly Florida – if it develops.
However, that is a big if because it is still 7+ days out, and as we stated above, development of 99-L is not a guarantee. If it does there are still several other possible outcomes that are just as likely.
Summary
Invest 99-L is not expected to develop over the next 2 – 3 days. However, conditions could become more favorable for development when it gets into the Bahamas on late Thursday or Early Friday potentially allowing it to form into a tropical depression or storm. If 99-L does develop it could potentially impact the United States.
The bottom line is that development of invest 99-L is not guaranteed, and you shouldn’t be to concerned about it yet. Although, it is worth monitoring throughout the week this week.
Tropical Depression Fiona and Tropical Depression 7
We also wanted to mention that Fiona is still hanging on as a tropical depression and that we also have a new tropical depression out over the far Eastern Tropical Atlantic. However, neither storm is a threat.
Fiona is expected to remain over the open Atlantic and dissipate. Meanwhile, tropical depression 7 will likely become tropical storm Gaston later tonight and should intensify into a hurricane over the open Atlantic in a few days. It is also expected to remain over the open Atlantic.
We will have another update out tomorrow.
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