A significant heavy rainfall and flood event is still anticipated to impact the Eastern and Central Gulf Coast throughout the week.
An upper-level low is expected to move slowly west over the Southeast through next weekend. There is also a stationary trough of low pressure located just south of the Florida Panhandle; and it is also expected to remain in place until Saturday or Sunday.
In addition, a surface low currently meandering around over North Florida will slowly move west along the trough eventually reaching East Louisiana on Saturday and lifting out to the North on Sunday.
The upper-level low, surface low, and trough working in conjunction will allow a heavy rainfall and flood event to unfold along the Gulf Coast from New Orleans, Louisiana to Tampa, Florida.
Today through tomorrow
Today through tomorrow the heavier rain will target the Big Bend region of Florida from Apalachicola, Florida to Tampa, Florida. 8 – 12” of rain is expected south of I-10 and west of I-75 over the next two days.
Wednesday through Saturday
The heavy rain will shift west to areas between New Orleans, Louisiana to Panama City, Florida from Wednesday through Saturday as the surface low moves west. Rainfall totals are likely to be between 8 – 12” south of I-10 and east of I-65. Some areas could see locally higher amounts of rain up to 14 – 16”.
These rainfall amounts will likely lead to flash flooding and river flooding. Some of the stronger storms could also produce prolific lightning and gusty winds of 30 – 40mph.
We will have continuing updates on this throughout the week.
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