Tropical development is no longer a concern with the area of low pressure over the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico. It will move inland over North Florida later today. However, a significant heavy rainfall and flood event is still going to unfold across the Central and Eastern Gulf Coast throughout the week.
A stationary tough of low pressure remains in place over the Northeast Gulf of Mexico this morning. This trough will remain stationary over the Northeast Gulf of Mexico just south of the coast through Saturday.
In addition, the surface low that will move inland over North Florida today will move back west across the Florida Panhandle, Southern Alabama, and Southern Mississippi throughout the week. It will eventually reach East Louisiana Saturday.
An upper-level low will also move into the Southeast tomorrow and remain stationary until Friday or Saturday.
The aforementioned scenario is what the latest runs of the ECMWF, UKMET, and GFS have agreed on.
The surface low, trough, and upper-level low working in conjunction will allow multiple rounds of heavy rain to impact areas from New Orleans, Louisiana to Tampa, Florida each day next week almost non-stop.
The rain will start for areas from Tampa, Florida to Cedar Key, Florida will be between now and won’t start for areas from Tallahassee, Florida to New Orleans, Louisiana until tomorrow or Tuesday.
Rainfall totals are forecast to range from 12 – 20” along the immediate coast from Cedar Key, FL to Pascagoula, Mississippi over the next 7 days with locally higher amounts possible Basically the heaviest rain will be east of I-65, west of I-75, and just north of I-10. Rainfall totals will be between 6– 10” inland south of highway 84 over the 7 next days.
This will likely lead to flash flooding in flood prone areas as well as in some areas that typically don’t flood across the Central and Northeastern Gulf Coast. In addition, river flooding is also very likely. In fact, flash flooding has already occurred along Florida’s West Coast.
Gusty winds between 30 and 40mph are also likely. Damaging wind gusts and prolific lighting will also be possible in the stronger storms next week.
We will have continuing updates on this event throughout the week.
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