Invest 97-l Development Odds Inceasing; 96-l Not Likely to Develop

Both invest 96-l and 97-l are still alive and kicking this afternoon. There have also been some slight changes with both. Invest 96-l has become less organized since yesterday; And invest 97-l has become slightly more organized.

We’ll start off by discussing invest 97-l first since it now has higher odds of developing and is closer to the United States (but still about 1,000 miles away).

Invest 97-l

Invest 97-l is still located in the Tropical Atlantic at 15.0 degrees north and 54.5 degrees west. 97-l currently has maximum sustained winds of 30mph, a minimum pressure of 1009 millibars, and is moving west.

Water vapor satellite image of 97-l
Water vapor satellite image of 97-l

Overall invest 97-l has become slightly better organized since yesterday. The main improvement is that it now has a modest amount of thunderstorm activity and is maintaining it. But, it still doesn’t have a discernable circulation.

It is also still moving at a pretty fast clip – about 25 or 30mph – and presently it is still in a rather dry environment. Both of these things are negative factors working against 97-l for the time being.

The National Hurricane Center gave 97-l a 60% chance of developing in their 2:00pm EDT tropical weather outlook.

The latest model guidance forecasts 97-l to move west into the Northeastern Caribbean by tomorrow or Monday. When it enters the Caribbean the models forecast 97-l to slowdown.  They then forecast 97-l to enter the Central and Northwestern Caribbean by Tuesday and Wednesday. It should then encounter a more favorable environment for development – especially when it gets into the Central and Western Caribbean.

GFS model valid Thursday, July 30th, 2016
GFS model valid Thursday, August 4th, 2016

The GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, NAVGEM, and GFS and ECMWF ensembles all forecast 97-l to develop over the Northwestern Caribbean during this upcoming week.

Ultimately it remains to be seen if 97-l will develop and where it will and how strong it will get if it does develop. However, at this point in time it does look like there is a decent chance that it will develop in the Central or Western Caribbean by the middle of next week. And whatever it becomes will likely end up in the Northwestern Caribbean and Southern Gulf by the middle to latter half of next week.

Invest 96-l

Invest 96-l is still located over the far Eastern Tropical Atlantic at 11.8 degrees north and 27.7 degrees west. Maximum sustained winds are 30mph and the minimum pressure is 1010 millibars.

Invest 96-l has become much less organized since yesterday and is now unlikely to develop as it will encounter a hostile environment beginning tomorrow. As a result, the National Hurricane Center has decreased the five-day development odds from 50% to 20%. In addition, the majority of the model guidance no longer develops 96-l.

We will have another update on invest 97-l out tomorrow. We will no longer provide updates on invest 96-l unless something changes.

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