Update on 96-l and Another Tropical Wave That Bears Watching

National Hurricane Center Five Day Tropical Weather Outlook
National Hurricane Center Five Day Tropical Weather Outlook

After a month long lull in tropical activity the Atlantic Basin finally appears to be waking up. We presently have two disturbances to monitor. The first is invest 96-L over the Eastern Atlantic; and the second is invest 97-L,  a tropical wave ahead of 96-l.

We will start off by discussing 96-l.

Invest 96-l

Invest 96-l is currently located in the far Eastern Atlantic at 10.3 degrees North and 20 degrees West as of 8:00am CDT this morning. 96-L has winds of 25mph and a minimum pressure of 1011 millibars.

Not much has changed with invest 96-l since yesterday. However, there has been some slight change. 96-L has become slightly more organized since yesterday; and the National Hurricane Center is giving it a 40% chance of developing over the next five days.

12z intensity guidance for 96-l
12z intensity guidance for 96-l

The forecast remains the same. 96-l will have the potential to develop over the next two to three days as it move West over the Tropical Atlantic. Presently the majority of the model guidance do forecast 96-l to develop into a tropical depression by Saturday. However, that is rather optimistic.

Then, by Sunday or Monday 96-l will begin to encounter dry air and wind shear which should hinder development or rip a potential tropical depression or tropical storm Earl apart.

INVEST 97-L

There is also a second tropical wave over the Central Tropical Atlantic ahead of 96-l that has been designated invest 97-L. Invest 97-L will bear watching over the next several days; and the National Hurricane Center is giving it a 30% chance of developing over the next five days.

18Z models for 97-L
18Z models for 97-L

Development of 97-L is not imminent; but, it will move through the Northeastern Caribbean late this weekend and early next week where conditions could be favorable for development. However, it could interact with land which could keep it in check. If it develops it could move into the Bahamas or Northwestern Caribbean by the middle of next week.

It is still too early to know if this wave will develop or impact the United States.

We will have another update on 96-l and the wave ahead of it tomorrow. For future updates follow us on Facebook and Twitter.