Models Picking up on Potential Development in the Northwest Caribbean or Western Gulf in 7 – 10 Days

GFS model initialized at 12z, Wednesday, June 22, 2016 valid Friday, July 1, 2016
GFS model initialized at 12z, Wednesday, June 22, 2016 valid Friday, July 1, 2016

Some of the model guidance – particularly the GFS – has been consistently forecasting a tropical cyclone to develop over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea between June 28th and July 4th for the past several days.

Model guidance: The GFS is forecasting an area of low pressure to develop from a tropical wave over the Southwestern Caribbean by about Monday, June 27th.  The GFS then forecasts the low to move into the Northwestern Caribbean Sea by Wednesday, June 29th. It then forecast the low to develop into a tropical depression or storm around the Yucatan Peninsula by Friday, July 1st and then move into the Gulf of Mexico.

NAVGEM model initialized 12z June 22, 2016 valid June 30, 2016
NAVGEM model initialized 12z June 22, 2016 valid June 30, 2016

In addition, the NAVGEM model has also been forecasting a similar scenario. The GFS ensemble members are also picking up on potential development in the Northwestern Caribbean between June 28th and July 4th as well.

Our thoughts: We believe that there is some potential for tropical development in the Northwestern Caribbean or Southwestern Gulf of Mexico next week between the June 28th and July 4th because the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) will be moving into the Atlantic basin around that time.

CPC Global Tropical Hazards Statement issued June 21, 2016 valid June 22 through July 5, 2016
CPC Global Tropical Hazards Statement issued June 21, 2016 valid June 22 through July 5, 2016

In addition, the Climate Prediction Center is also indicating that there will be potential for tropical development in the Southwestern Gulf or Northwestern Caribbean next week.

However, this is nothing to be concerned about yet as it is entirely possible that nothing develops; but it is something that we will be keeping an eye on. Please keep in mind that development is not expected at this time.

We will have another update out on Friday if there is still potential for tropical development in the Northwestern Caribbean or Western Gulf next week.

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