Invest 94-L appears poised to become the next tropical depression and potentially 4th named storm of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season sometime later today or tomorrow.
Location: 94-L is currently located over the Bay of Campeche at 20.3°N 94.3°W. 94-l is currently moving WNW and has maximum sustained winds of about 30kts with gusts up to 40kts. The minimum central pressure is 1008 millibars.
Development odds: Invest 94-L has become a little more organized over the past 24 hours and it most likely will become a tropical depression within the next day or two
The National Hurricane Center is now giving 94-L a high chance – 70% – of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next 48 hours. They also note that a tropical depression or storm will likely develop later today or Monday. In addition, the hurricane hunters are scheduled to investigate 94-L this afternoon.
But, 94-L does have something working against it at the moment that is hindering development, wind shear.
Upper-level winds (shear) over 94-L are only marginally conductive for development at the moment. However, they should become slightly more conductive for development later today and tomorrow.
In addition, there is also some dry air that is impacting 94-L which is also preventing development. however, this is not really much of a problem at the moment.
Forecast for 94-L: Invest 94-L should become a tropical depression later today or tomorrow morning at the latest. It will likely then strengthen into a weak tropical storm and with winds of 40 – 45mph before making landfall along the East Coast of Mexico tomorrow.
The primary threat from 94-L will be heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and mudslides in parts of Eastern Mexico.