Models Picking up on Potential Gulf Development in 7 – 10 Days

06z GFS model valid Monday, June 20th, 2016
06z GFS model valid Monday, June 20th, 2016

Some of the long range model guidance is beginning to pick up on potential tropical development in the Western Gulf of Mexico June 18th and June 21st. 

Models: The past several runs of the GFS model have been forecasting an area of low pressure to develop over Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula around June 18th or 19th. From there the GFS has been forecasting the low to move North or Northwestward into the Western or Central Gulf of Mexico.

The GFS then forecasts it to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm between June 19th and June 21st and moves it towards the Western or Central Gulf Coast.

00Z GFS ensemble members for Tuesday, June 21st, 2016
00Z GFS ensemble members for Tuesday, June 21st, 2016

It is also important to note that some of the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members have also been forecasting similar scenarios during the same time frame.

Our thoughts:  Presently, we believe that there is some potential for tropical development in the Western Gulf between June 18th and 21st. However, we do believe that the potential is low at this time and is by no means expected or guaranteed.

Although, it will be something that we will continue to monitor and we will have updates on this potential throughout the week if the GFS becomes more consistent.

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