Invest 93-L is still located over the Northwestern Caribbean this morning and it still has a high chance – 80% – of developing into a tropical storm over the next five days.
Model guidance: Overnight model guidance hasn’t changed much since yesterday. They are still forecasting an area of low pressure to develop in association with 93-L tomorrow and for it to emerge just North of the Yucatan on Monday. They then forecast 93-L to move North into the Central Gulf and consolidate into a tropical storm late Monday or early Tuesday.
However, thereafter the guidance begins to diverge. The GFS an NAVGEM forecast the it to strengthen into a moderate tropical storm over the Eastern Gulf and move into Central Florida just north of Tampa late on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the ECMWF, UKMET, and GFS and ECMWF ensembles strengthen it into a moderate tropical storm over the Central Gulf and move it north or north-northeast to just south of the big-bend before pushing it east into north Florida late Tuesday.
Forecast for 93-L: An area of low pressure should develop in association with invest 93-L tomorrow. It should then emerge just north of the Yucatan Peninsula early Monday and then form into a tropical storm late Monday. After it develops it will move to the north or north-northeast and strengthen to a moderate tropical storm over the Central or Eastern Gulf on Tuesday. It will then make landfall somewhere between Tampa and the big-bend of Florida.
Impacts: Winds of 45 – 55mph, heavy rainfall and flash flooding, and rough surf. However, the worst of the weather will occur to the East and Southeast of the center as the storm will be weighted to the East due to wind shear.
We will have updates on 93-l throughout this weekend and next week. Follow us on Facebook and Twitter for future updates. You should also monitor the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center.