It appears that there will be potential for tropical development across the Northwestern Caribbean or Southern Gulf of Mexico between June 6th and 10th. The latest long range model guidance is indicating that an area of disturbed weather might form early/mid-week next week in the Northwestern Caribbean. Thereafter, models indicate that this area of disturbed weather could potentially develop into a tropical storm and lift Northward into the Gulf of Mexico late next week.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) will also be moving through the Atlantic basin next week. This could aid in potential tropical development as it causes upward motion (rising air) which promotes lowering pressures and thunderstorm development. An upper – level trough will also lift out of the Northwestern Caribbean next week which will cause convergence which could also aid in potential tropical development.
Model guidance: Both the ECMWF and GFS models are forecasting an area of low pressure to develop in the Northwestern Caribbean around the Yucatan Peninsula on June 6th. The ECMWF is the most bullish of the two forecasting the low to track Northward and develop into a weak tropical storm over the Southern Gulf around the 7th or 8th of June. Meanwhile, the GFS is less bullish and keeps the low on the weak side and moves it off to the Northeast across South Florida around June 8th.
It should also be noted that both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles area also forecasting an area of low pressure to form in the Northwestern Caribbean between June 6th and 10th. Also, the latest runs of the CMC and NAVGEM models are forecasting similar scenarios.
Our thoughts: We do believe that there is some potential for tropical development in the Northwestern Caribbean and Southern Gulf next week. The pattern expected to be in place with the trough lifting out and MJO coming though does favor an area of disturbed weather forming at the very least if not a tropical storm. However, we do believe that the potential is low at this time as this is still 8 – 10 days out and development is not a sure thing. Never the less, it is something that we will monitor and we will keep you updated on the potential throughout this week.