The extended range model guidance has been hinting at the possibility for tropical development somewhere across the Northwestern Caribbean or off of the Southeast US coast in the May 29th to June 2nd timeframe for the past week or so.
Model guidance: All of the latest runs of the GFS model, GFS ensembles, ECMWF model, ECMWF ensembles, and the CMC model are forecasting a rather broad area of low pressure to form across the Northwestern Caribbean Sea to just off of the Southeastern US coast around May 29th or May 30th. The GFS and CMC then attempt to spin it up into a tropical depression or storm over the Bahamas/Southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF on the other hand develops a weaker area of low pressure over the Eastern Gulf.
GFS model calid may 30th
In addition, the models are forecasting a large area of high pressure develop and strengthen over the Atlantic which typically cause pressures to lower across the Caribbean. This can sometimes aid or even cause tropical development to occur across the Northwestern Caribbean.
Discussion: This isn’t something to worry about at this time because it is still 8 – 10 days out in the model forecasts; and the model forecasts will no doubt change between now and the end of this month. In fact, it is fair to say that there won’t be any tropical development in the Atlantic basin this month. However, it does appear that there is a low chance for some tropical mischief in the Northwestern Caribbean or off of the Southeast US coast towards the last few days of this month. This is something we will continue to monitor and if the model guidance remains consistent we will issue another email update on 5/23/16.