A trough of surface low pressure has formed over the Northeast Gulf of Mexico.
This trough is going to track slowly west along the Northern Gulf Coast this week (see figure 2), resulting in very wet, unsettled weather tomorrow through the Fourth of July.
Periods of heavy rain are likely. The latest quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) has not changed much, calling for rainfall accumulations of 2 – 4″ along much of the Northern Gulf Coast (mainly along the I-10 corridor) through next week (see figure 1).
Tropical cyclone genesis is still not expected — mostly due to the trough interacting with land. However, there is still a low chance that at least a tropical depression (TD) could briefly spin up, with the latest 00z run of the ECMWF ensembles (EPS) indicating a 35 – 40% chance of at least a TD forming over the next 1 – 3 days.
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For an official, accurate weather forecast specific to your local area go to weather.gov and enter your zip code or consult your local National Weather Service.
