There continues to be a threat for severe weather tomorrow and Monday.
A deepening storm system is still expected to track across the Mid-South through Monday, advecting moisture into the Central Gulf Coast States, resulting in multiple rounds of convection (scattered to numerous thunderstorms) and a conducive environment for severe storms.
Tomorrow: The threat area still extends from Louisiana into Alabama, but now includes South Alabama and the Western Florida Panhandle.
A “slight risk” for severe weather is defined by the Storm Prediction Center from North Alabama through West-Central Alabama, with a “marginal risk defined elsewhere across South Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle (generally along and north of the I-10 corridor).
Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. Severe storms will be isolated to scattered in regard to coverage (meaning not everyone will be impacted by a severe storm). The main potential hazards will be large hail and damaging straight-line winds. However, a threat for a few brief, isolated tornadoes will exist.
Timing will be from tomorrow morning through late tomorrow night/early Monday morning.
Monday: The severe weather threat will continue for Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.
A “slight risk” for severe weather is defined for East Mississippi, essentially all of Alabama, and a small section of the Florida Panhandle. A “marginal risk” is defined for Southeast Mississippi, Southwest Alabama, and the remainder of the Florida Panhandle.
The overall magnitude and exact placement of the greatest severe threat still can’t be pinned down. But once it is, part of the “slight risk” area might be upgraded. Currently, model guidance suggests the greatest threat will be North/Central Alabama (see figure 1).
For East Mississippi, the remainder of Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle coverage of severe storms will be isolated to scattered, but could be numerous for the area of the “slight risk” zone that gets upgraded (assuming it does).
Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will all be potential hazards.
Timing will be the afternoon/evening hours.
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