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Next Storm System Arrives Late-Week

Figure 1. GFS predicted 500mb height, vorticity, and wind, valid 06z Friday | Credit: Tropical Tidbits

A strong shortwave trough is going to move out of the Plains and into the Mississippi Valley Thursday – Friday, and eventually form a closed upper low. This will result in  cyclone genesis, and the passage of a cold front. 

Widespread rain and thunderstorms will be likely in the warm sector, as warm and moist air will get advected inland.

There will be some potential for some strong/severe storms for east TX, LA, MS, AL, and the FL Panhandle. However, this potential does not appear to be too high at this time, as it looks like instability will once again be lacking. 

Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for Thursday. 

The Storm Prediction Center has defined a “marginal” risk area. 

High pressure will settle in as the system departs, bringing a cooler/colder air mass. 

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