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First Threat of Fall Severe Weather Season Tomorrow – Thursday

The first threat of the fall severe weather season is upon us. An upper-level trough is going to push a cold front across the Gulf Coast region tomorrow and Thursday. A linear complex of storms is going to develop in E Texas along/ahead of the front by tomorrow evening; it… Continue reading

Strong to Severe Storms Possible Wednesday – Thursday; Turning Cooler Late Week

  An active start to November is looking likely weather wise . Model guidance is advertising a strong upper-level trough and associated cold front to drop south Wednesday/Thursday (see figure 1). There will be a line of showers storms along/ahead of the front.¬†There also appears to be some some severe… Continue reading

Area of Low Pressure Could Bring Heavy Rain Wednesday – Friday

An area of low pressure is going to form over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. From Wednesday through Friday, this low will track generally east along/just south of the Gulf Coast. Widespread showers/thunderstorms will be likely along the northern Gulf Coast. Heavy rain will also be possible. The… Continue reading

Another Trough Next Week; Cooler Than Average Temperatures Likely

Another unusually strong upper-level trough (for this time of year) is going to carve itself out over the Central and East U.S. mid to late week next week — something that has been common place this summer (see figure 1). The result of this trough digging in is going to… Continue reading

Another Pattern Change Next Week

Another change to the upper-level pattern change is on the way. Mid to late week next week, a cut-off low is likely going to develop over the Southern Plains. This should lead to increased/above average precipitation — particularly for Texas and Louisiana — through at least the mid month. The… Continue reading

Some Strong/Severe Storms Possible from Southeast TX into AL Today

Some strong/severe storms will be possible from Southeast Texas to Alabama through this evening along and ahead of a front. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a “marginal” risk area. A few organized clusters/complexes, such as the once currently impacting East Texas and Southwest Louisiana, are likely to develop. Movement… Continue reading

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