Ian has rapidly intensified overnight into this morning. A USAF reconnaissance aircraft currently investigating the hurricane found that the pressure has dropped to 937 mb and flight level winds as high as 160 knots (~184 mph). Maximum sustained wind speeds…
It is now likely that Ian is going to make landfall tomorrow afternoon/evening near Cape Coral/Port Charlotte as a category 3 or 4 hurricane. Model guidance has continued to shift south. As such the hurricane warning has been extended south…
Ian is now a category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph. Movement is now north at 12 mph. Additional strengthening is still expected today over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The 5 AM EDT forecast track continues…
Ian got significantly better organized overnight allowing it to intensify into a category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. Rapid intensification is expected through today and tonight, and Ian should be a category 4 hurricane over the…
Ian is a bit stronger. Winds are up to 50 mph. Other than that there have been no changes with Ian overnight. Ian should begin to intensify at a faster pace soon as environmental conditions are favorable. The GFS and…
Tropical Storm Ian is holding intensity this evening over the central Caribbean. As of the 8 PM EDT advisory maximum sustained winds were still 45 mph with a minimum central pressure of 1002 mb. Wind shear has dropped to 5-10…
Tropical Storm Ian has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph this morning. Confidence remains rather low with respect to Ian’s track once past Cuba. The GFS and ECMWF, as well as their ensembles, continue to be very different. The GEFS…
Invest 98L has developed into a tropical depression (Tropical Depression Nine). The initial forecast for TD9 has a category 2 hurricane near Cuba early next week. At this point a landfall in central or south Florida Tuesday/Wednesday is looking increasingly…
Invest 98L has moved into the southeastern Caribbean Sea. Development chances remain high at 70 percent through the next 2 days and 90 percent through the next 5 days. At this point we are reasonably confident that Invest 98L will…
After a lull in activity the tropics are waking up. Hurricane Fiona, which is the season’s first major hurricane, is continuing to intensify as it begins to move away from the Turks and Caicos this evening. Maximum sustained have increased…