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About Caleb Carmichael

Owner and forecaster at Gulf Coast Storm Center and Florida Panhandle Weather • Skywarn storm spotter • Not (yet) a meteorologist • Follow me on Twitter @WX_Caleb

Coldest air of the Season so Far Arrives This Weekend; Likely to Stick Around Into Next Week

The coldest air of the season so far is on the way this weekend. Meanwhile, a second,  more significant blast of arctic air is likely next week. The latest 6 – 10 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center reflects this well (see figure 1). Initially it looked like… Continue reading

Severe Weather Event to Unfold Tonight

A severe weather event is going to unfold from Northeast Louisiana/Southeast Arkansas into North Mississippi, Northwest Alabama, and Tennessee tonight into tomorrow morning. Unstable atmospheric conditions will cause discrete cells to initially develop across Northern Louisiana and Western Arkansas this evening ( around 4 – 6 PM). The cells that… Continue reading

Arctic Blast Likely at end of the Week

A blast of arctic air is likely late this week, and should bring the coldest temperatures of the season so far. Both the EPS and GEFS are advertising the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to go into negative territory around the 6th/7th. This would favor development of an upper-level trough over the… Continue reading

Severe Weather Outbreak Likely for Parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama Next Week

A severe weather outbreak is likely for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama early this upcoming week. On Monday, a negatively tilted upper-level trough is going to develop over the Central part of the country.  A mid-latitude cyclone (area of low pressure) is going to deepen while moving into the… Continue reading

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Next Week

Another severe weather outbreak is looking possible early next week. Monday into Tuesday, a negative tilt upper-level trough is going to develop over the Central part of the country.  At the same time, a mid-latitude cyclone (area of low pressure) is going to deepen while moving into the Midwest and… Continue reading

Threat for Severe Weather From Texas to the Lower MS River Valley Today Through Tomorrow

A severe weather event is likely to unfold from Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley through tomorrow. Today and tonight:  A cold front is currently positioned across North Texas per the latest surface analysis. This front is going to shift south and east over the next 24 – 48… Continue reading

First Threat of Fall Severe Weather Season Tomorrow – Thursday

The first threat of the fall severe weather season is upon us. An upper-level trough is going to push a cold front across the Gulf Coast region tomorrow and Thursday. A linear complex of storms is going to develop in E Texas along/ahead of the front by tomorrow evening; it… Continue reading

Strong to Severe Storms Possible Wednesday – Thursday; Turning Cooler Late Week

  An active start to November is looking likely weather wise . Model guidance is advertising a strong upper-level trough and associated cold front to drop south Wednesday/Thursday (see figure 1). There will be a line of showers storms along/ahead of the front. There also appears to be some some severe… Continue reading

Area of Low Pressure Could Bring Heavy Rain Wednesday – Friday

An area of low pressure is going to form over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. From Wednesday through Friday, this low will track generally east along/just south of the Gulf Coast. Widespread showers/thunderstorms will be likely along the northern Gulf Coast. Heavy rain will also be possible. The… Continue reading

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