A storm system located in the Southern Plains is going to begin the trek toward the Tennessee Valley today. Like we discussed, this system will bring a trailing front through the South. There will be a severe threat along/ahead of the front it today and tomorrow, followed by a push of arctic this weekend.
Severe Threat
Today: Starting this afternoon and evening, there will be a marginal risk for a few strong to severe storms across parts of east Texas, northern Louisiana, and west Mississippi (see figure 2).
Hail and damaging wind gusts are the main threat today. However, an isolated tornado risk could evolve by tonight.
Tomorrow: The severe threat will translate into east LA, MS, AL, and FL Panhandle.
A band/line of storms is expected to form along the front, in the lower Mississippi Valley; it will track east in tandem with the front through the day. In addition to a marginal risk area, the SPC has outlined a slight risk area (see figure 3).
The main threat will be damaging winds, with a brief, isolated tornado or two possible once again.
It should be noted that the overall severe threat both today and tomorrow will be limited by lack of instability.
Heavy Rain: Heavy rain is a given with the band of storms. But flooding issues continue to look unlikely given that the front will be moving along fairly quickly.
Arctic Air
Nothing has really changed in regard to what comes in the wake of the front. An arctic air mass will overspread the Gulf Coast States tomorrow and Sunday.
This will be the coldest air experienced by most this winter so far. Temperatures will run well below-average, with 20s likely all the way down to the central Gulf Coast Sunday night/Monday morning. Wind chill index values will be even lower.
STAYING COLD AND STORMY
Looking ahead, all indications are that a more sustained cold and stormy pattern will remain locked in into next month.
The latest 8-14 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center reflects this, showing a high probability of below normal temperatures for the eastern two-thirds of the country to end January.
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