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Heavy Rain and Severe Threat Monday Ahead of a Strong Cold Front

Figure 1. latest 5-day QPF from the Weather Prediction Center | Credit: Pivotal Weather

An upper-level trough is going to dig southward Monday and Tuesday, bringing another strong cold front with it.

Heavy rain

An area of surface low pressure is expected to develop over the Northwest Gulf late tomorrow/Monday in association with the front; it will track northeast into the central Gulf Coast states Monday into Tuesday. Both the front and low will cause heavy rain. Based on the latest quantative precipitation forecast (QPF) from the Weather Prediction Center,  2 – 4″ inches of rain seems likely. Although, locally higher amounts will be possible (see figure 1).

Severe threat

There will be potential for a few strong/severe storms south of a warm front, which will nudge inland ahead of the aforementioned surface low. The main threat would be an isolated tornado or two and damaging wind gusts. However, the overall severe threat appears to be low-end as of now.

Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for Monday, November 12, 2018.

A “marginal” risk area has been defined by the Storm Prediction Center; it mainly encompasses areas along the  I-10 corridor from Houston to Tallahassee (see figure 2).

Arctic air

Behind the front, which will make passage on Monday, a significantly colder (arctic) air mass is going to move in. Temperatures will plunge well below normal. Locations away from the coast, like Mobile, Lake Charles, and Jackson, will likely see freeze of the season Monday night/Tuesday morning. Highs will likely only make it into the 40s and 50s both Tuesday and Wednesday.


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About Caleb Carmichael

Owner and forecaster at Gulf Coast Storm Center and Florida Panhandle Weather • Skywarn storm spotter • Not (yet) a meteorologist • Follow me on Twitter @WX_Caleb

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