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Coldest air of the Season so Far Arrives This Weekend; Likely to Stick Around Into Next Week

Figure 1. Latest 6 – 10 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center | Credit: Pivotal Weather

The coldest air of the season so far is on the way this weekend. Meanwhile, a second,  more significant blast of arctic air is likely next week. The latest 6 – 10 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center reflects this well (see figure 1).

Initially it looked like negative NAO was going to be driving this next week. However, it will actually be a positive PNA oscillation.

This weekend

We are going to have a trough sweep across the Central and Eastern half of the nation Thursday into Friday. An associated cold front will drop down across the south.

The coldest air of the season so far will move in behind the front this weekend. Lows will range from the 30s to 40s, with highs in the 40s to lower/mid 60s.

Next week

A much deeper upper-level trough is going to get carved out over the eastern half of the country Monday/Tuesday. Yet another cold front will move through.

Figure 2. GEFS projected 2-meter temperature anomalies valid 11.14.18 | Credit: weathermodels.com

There is still some uncertainty regarding the overall magnitude of this second cold-shot. However, it could be rather significant. The latest GEFS and EPS runs are indicating that we could be looking at temperatures 15  degrees below normal. This could potentially mean the first frost/freeze of the season for many.


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About Caleb Carmichael

Owner and forecaster at Gulf Coast Storm Center and Florida Panhandle Weather • Skywarn storm spotter • Not (yet) a meteorologist • Follow me on Twitter @WX_Caleb

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