Tropical Update: Kirk a Tropical Storm Again

Figure 1. IR satellite image of Kirk from 12:05 Z 9/26/18 | Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The remnants of Kirk were able to develop a closed center overnight per another ASCAT pass — meaning we now have Tropical Storm Kirk (again).

At the 5 AM EDT/AST advisory, Kirk was moving west at 18 mph with 40 mph winds a minimum central pressure of 1004 millibars.


Analysis: Kirk has slowed, albeit slightly. Satellite imagery this morning showed that Kirk has an area of concentrated, deep convection over the center (see figure 1).

Track: Model guidance is in good agreement regarding the track of Kirk. High pressure will keep Kirk on a west to west-northwest path through the end of the week, passing through the Lesser Antilles sometime Thursday night. Kirk will emerge in the east Caribbean Friday.

Figure 2. Forecast track for Kirk from the 9/26/18 5 AM EDT/AST advisory.

By this weekend, a more westward movement should commence, with what is left of Kirk moving into the central/west Caribbean.

Intensity: There is a window for some slight intensification over the next 36 – 48 hours. Shear remains low and dry air seems to have abated some. However, the SHIPS model indicates that shear will increase markedly once Kirk nears/moves into the east Caribbean Sea; this will result in dissipation.


Note: Kirk is unlikely to pose a threat to the United States.

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Caleb Carmichael
Caleb Carmichael

Caleb is the owner of Gulf Coast Storm Center. He is currently an undergraduate student at Mississippi State University majoring in geoscience with a concentration in broadcast and operational meteorology. While not yet a meteorologist, Caleb has been providing weather updates, news, and analysis for the Gulf Coast since 2014.

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