Tropical Update | Florence now Expected to Stall on Approach to North Carolina

Figure 1. IR satellite image of  Major Hurricane Florence from 9/12/18 14:04 UTC.

There have been some major changes in regard to the track of Florence over the past day.

Track: Florence will continue to be steered to the west-northwest to northwest around the periphery of the Bermuda high through today, and will approach the coast of North Carolina tomorrow morning. After this point is where we have had a big change.

Figure 2. Latest forecast cone for Florence.

A ridge is now forecast to build to the north of Florence tomorrow rather than to the west; this will still result in a considerable decrease in little movement and/or a stall late tomorrow/Friday, but then a WSW to SW movement paralleling the coast or just inland this weekend instead of a continued movement into North Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic. (see figure 2).

The takeaway from this is that there is still a lot of uncertainty in regard to the track of Florence, and additional shifts are possible.

Intensity: Nothing has changed with the intensity forecast for Florence.  There is a chance Florence could become a category 5 for a brief time, with eye wall replacement cycles continuing to be the only impediment to intensification. Shear will increase as Florence nears the coast. However, a category 3 or 4 is still expected is still expected to impact NC  and SC. There will be continued weakening while Florence drifts WSW/SW regardless of a track just inland or just offshore.

Impacts: There has been no change in respect to impacts, which will begin as early as tomorrow morning, when tropical-storm-force winds and squalls will begin to push onshore.

  • Surge: There will be a significant, life-threatening storm surge of up to 9 – 13′ on the east side of the storm.
  • Winds: Portions of both coastal North Carolina and South Carolina (and possibly Georgia depending on the track) will be impacted by damaging hurricane-force winds. It should also be noted that because of Florence’s sizable wind field (hurricane-force winds extend 70 miles from from the center) and the expected drift and/or stall, hurricane force winds could continue for an extended period.
  • Heavy rain: Because Florence is going to drift and/or stall,  a prolonged, life-threatening,  and potentially catastrophic heavy rainfall/flood event will unfold across SC and NC and possibly into the Mid-Atlantic (see figure 3).

 


Key Messages from the National Hurricane Center:

Figure 3. Key messages from the National Hurricane Center regarding Florence.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina.
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina.
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina.
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light Virginia.
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort.


We will have an update on Tropical Storm Isaac and Invest 95L later this afternoon. 


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For an official, accurate weather forecast specific to your local area go to weather.gov and enter your zip code or consult your local National Weather Service.

Caleb Carmichael
Caleb Carmichael

Caleb is the owner of Gulf Coast Storm Center. He is currently an undergraduate student at Mississippi State University majoring in geoscience with a concentration in broadcast and operational meteorology. While not yet a meteorologist, Caleb has been providing weather updates, news, and analysis for the Gulf Coast since 2014.

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