An area of disturbed weather located in the far East Atlantic, approximately midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, has some potential to develop over the next few days as it tracks to the west.
Environmental conditions are not all that conducive for development. Sea surface temperatures (SST) are in the 26 – 28° (C) range, but a band of moderate to high shear is just ahead of the disturbance. There is also dry air from the saharan air layer (see figure 2) currently impacting the disturbance.
However, shear is expected to relax this weekend as the disturbance tracks generally west, which could allow for some gradual development. Looking at the latest model guidance, the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, GEFS, and EPS all predict at least some development.
Possibility increasing for a short-lived MDR system in the coming week. Note the lack of shading over the western tropical Atlantic suggests that if this system does spin up, it will likely spin down fairly quickly. GEFS bulled up at 90%; ECMWF 60%; NHC 20% pic.twitter.com/8y58xpXgdB
— Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) August 10, 2018
In their 8:00 AM EST tropical weather outlook, the National Hurricane Center gave the disturbance a 10% chance of development over the next 2 day and a 20% chance over the next 5 days.
Towards the end of next week wind shear is expected to increase, which would limit further development; it will also likely cause this system to be short-lived if it develops.
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