Frigid Arctic Air Moves in New Year’s Eve

Today: No rain today (with the exception of South/Coastal Texas), and temperatures will seem somewhat mild compared to the past several days.

Highs will range from the upper 40s (North/Central Alabama and Mississippi and North Louisiana) to lower to mid 50s (North-Central Gulf Coast and South/Coastal Texas).

Lows will range from the mid 20s to upper 20s (North and Central Alabama and Mississippi and North Louisiana) to mid 40s to mid 50s (North-Central Gulf Coast and South/Coastal Texas).

Tomorrow: Rain continues across South/Coastal Texas through tomorrow afternoon, and returns to Louisiana and  South and Central Mississippi late tomorrow as a surface low that will develop over or near the Texas Gulf Coast begins to slide east in tandem with a shortwave.

Temperatures will moderate slightly more, with high and low temperatures running roughly 5 – 10 degrees above today’s.

Freezing rain/sleet tomorrow night into Sunday: Some light freezing rain, and possibly some sleet, is likely across portions of North and Central Louisiana and Mississippi, and Central Alabama, tomorrow night and during the first half of the day Sunday.

GFS projected ice accumulation.

Little to no accumulation is expected, but some impacts to travel will be possible, as ice will likely accumulate on bridges and overpasses.

The potential for any significant wintry precipitation occurring across North and Central Alabama and Mississippi New Year’s Eve is essentially non-existent at this point, as the ECMWF and GFS came into agreement on the drier solution. However, we will continue to monitor for any changes.

New Year’s Eve: A significantly colder (and dry) arctic air-mass is going to arrive, marking the start of a stretch of extremely cold, below average temperatures.

NAM simulated radar for late Sunday afternoon/early Sunday evening.

Rain will continue across Louisiana, and spread into South and Central Mississippi, and South Alabama and the Florida Panhandle during the day; it looks to clear out during the late afternoon/evening hours, as the aforementioned cold and dry air-mass begins to spill southward. Though, there is still some uncertainty regarding exactly when the rain will move out. Stay tuned for updates.

Temperatures will max out in the upper 30s to lower 40s (North and Central Mississippi and Alabama, and North Louisiana) during the day to mid 40s to mid 50s (North-Central Gulf Coast and South/Coastal Texas).

New Year’s Eve night will be the first of multiple bitterly cold nights. Lows will range from the teens to lower 20s (North and Central Mississippi and Alabama, and North Louisiana), and upper 20s to lower to mid 30s (North-Central Gulf Coast and South/Coastal Texas).

Throughout the evening, temperatures will plummet. As things stand currently, many will experience wind chill values in the teens and 20s during New Year’s Eve festivities.

New Year’s Day: It is going to remain dry Monday, and also very cold.

Highs will struggle to get out of the 30s and 40s. Monday night into Tuesday Temperatures will drop into the teens, with upper 20s likely all the way down to the North-Central Gulf Coast overnight. A widespread hard freeze is expected, with a freeze for immediate coastal areas along the North-Central Gulf Coast. Necessary precautions to protect plants, pets, and pipes (etc…) will need to be taken.

GFS projected wind chill values for Monday morning.

Frigid wind chills will also be likely again overnight into Tuesday morning.

Cold, dry conditions continue through next week: A hard freeze is expected again both Tuesday night and Wednesday, with a freeze for coastal areas of the North-Central Gulf Coast (with the exception of South/Coastal Texas Wednesday night).

Cold, below average temperatures look continue through at least Friday – Saturday. Dry conditions will also prevail.

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Caleb Carmichael
Caleb Carmichael

Caleb is the owner of Gulf Coast Storm Center. He is currently an undergraduate student at Mississippi State University majoring in geoscience with a concentration in broadcast and operational meteorology. While not yet a meteorologist, Caleb has been providing weather updates, news, and analysis for the Gulf Coast since 2014.

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