An upper disturbance (upper-level shortwave trough) is going to lift out of the plains and into the Northeast tomorrow through Monday.
The aforementioned disturbance, combined with a few other features, will cause showers and thunderstorms to return from East/South Texas to Western Florida Panhandle and points in between tomorrow and Monday. It will also bring the potential for strong to severe storms to return to parts of the North-Central Gulf Coast.
Severe Potential
Overall, the threat for severe weather tomorrow and Monday is rather low, as instability will be on the low side. But some isolated strong(er) storms with the potential to produce damaging winds and an isolated tornado or two are likely.
Tomorrow
The threat for a few strong to possibly severe storms will be centered across Southeast Louisiana, parts of South Mississippi, and Southwest Alabama, from predawn through early tomorrow afternoon.
Threat level: Category 1 (“marginal”)
Monday
On Monday ( mainly Monday morning through about midday), the threat for a few strong to severe storms will linger across Southeast Louisiana, parts of South Mississippi, and South Alabama; it will also shift east into the far Western Florida Panhandle.
Threat level: Category 1 (“marginal”)
Rainfall
Widespread rainfall accumulations of 0.50″ – 2″ are likely tomorrow and Monday, with some locally higher totals likely.
However, this will be beneficial, as much of the South (including the Gulf Coast States) have been generally rather dry as of late, with the Climate Prediction Center indicating drought development is likely sometime between now and the end of February.
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