The area of disturbed weather in the Southwest Caribbean was designated Invest 90l yesterday.
Chance of Development: Invest 90l currently has a high chance of developing (90 percent) over the next 2 – 5 days.
Development appears rather imminent, as ASCAT and satellite data this morning show that 90l is organizing and likely , and 90l is likely to become a tropical depression or storm later today.
Track: Invest 90l will lift north into the Northwest Caribbean tomorrow and Friday and then into the Gulf of Mexico Saturday.
However, beyond Saturday, the track becomes less certain. At this time, a track towards the North-Central or Northeastern Gulf Coast is likely, with model guidance currently zeroing in on locations between New Orleans, Louisiana and Apalachicola, Florida.
Intensity: The current model consensus is for Invest 90l to become a strong tropical storm or category one hurricane. Although, the exact intensity remains uncertain.
Impacts: It is too early to pin down what impacts will be felt along the North-Central or Northeast Gulf Coast, as they will be depend on the intensity of Invest 90l.
Key message: It is to early to determine where Invest 90l will track, or how strong it will become. However, it is highly likely that somewhere along the North-Central or Northeast Gulf Coast will be impacted – likely during the Sunday – Tuesday time frame.
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