Invest 93-L Likely to Develop over Southern Gulf Early Next Week

Our thoughts on the evolution of invest 93-l
Our thoughts on the evolution of invest 93-l

The National Hurricane Center has tagged invest 93-l over the Northwestern Caribbean and are now giving it a high chance of developing – 70% – over the next five days.

Model guidance: All of the latest model guidance forecast a surface low to develop in association with invest 93-l in the Southern Gulf just North of the Yucatan late Sunday or Early Monday. They then forecast 93-l to consolidate into a tropical cyclone over the Central or Eastern Gulf  sometime Monday. Then on Tuesday they forecast it to strengthen into a moderate tropical storm with landfall occurring in Central Florida on Tuesday as well.

ECMWF model valid Monday June 6th 2016

Forecast for 93-l: Invest 93-l will move over the Northwestern Caribbean this weekend and emerge in the Southern Gulf North of the Yucatan late Sunday or early Monday. 93-l should then develop into a tropical storm sometime Monday or early Tuesday in the Central or Eastern Gulf of Mexico. It will then make landfall in somewhere in Central Florida as a moderate tropical storm with winds of 45 – 55mph.

Impacts: Winds in excess of 55mph, heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and rough surf will be the main impacts from what will likely be tropical storm Colin. Flash flooding will especially be a concern across Southern Florida. It should also be noted that the worst of the weather will be to the East and Southeast of the Center of the storm as it will be Eastern weighted.

We will have updates on 93-l throughout this weekend and next week. Follow us on Facebook and Twitter for future updates. You should also monitor the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center.