Model guidance: The latest runs of the GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and their ensemble members are forecasting a broad trough of low pressure to form across the Northern Caribbean and Bahamas between the May 26th and May 28th. The GFS, CMC, ECMWF, and GFS ensemble members then forecast a tropical disturbance to develop between the 29th and the 30th.
However, shortly thereafter the models begin to differ. The GFS and CMC develop the disturbance into a tropical/subtropical storm by the 30th and 31st of May and the ECMWF doesn’t develop it into a storm until June 2nd. The models do agree on a general track though; they bring this potential system slowly to the West-Northwest towards the Southeastern US coast as a weak subtropical or tropical storm early next week.
Our thoughts: So, overall we think that there is potential for a subtropical storm to develop over the Southwestern Atlantic early next week.
The models are forecasting a piece of energy from an upper-level trough to get stuck beneath a ridge of high pressure over the Bahamas and Southwest Atlantic. When this occurs it does tend to favor early season subtropical development in the Southwest Atlantic. In addition, wind shear is also expected to lessen some over the Southwestern Atlantic and Eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend into early next week.
However, all of this is still somewhat uncertain at this point in time. It is also important to note that it is to early too discuss possible impact from this system or where it would go; however, we can say that it will likely become no more than a weak to moderate tropical storm. Although, tropical or subtropical development is far from certain. We also think that at the very least an area of disturbed weather will form in the Bahamas this weekend.